What will likely be the most important scientific and technological breakthroughs with significant commercial value and impacts on the lives of consumers out to 2025?
To begin to answer that question, S)T's Technology Foresight program conducted a virtual, global focus group of experts in technology, innovation, and business strategy. The group included experts from the Association of Professional Futurists, Tekes, Duke University, Hasbro, Worldwatch, General Motors, Shell, Johnson Controls, and Oxford University, among others.
After consolidating input from the expert panel and analysis by Social Technologies' futurists, what emerged was our list of top 12 areas for tech innovation through 2025:
THE TOP 12 AREAS FOR TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION THROUGH 2025
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Personalized medicine--With the initial mapping of the human genome, scientists are moving rapidly toward the following likely breakthroughs for gene-based products and services:
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creation of an individual's genome map for a retail price of less than $1,000
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correlation of specific genes and proteins with specific conditions, such as cancers, Alzheimer's, heart disease, and diabetes, which will allow both physicians and patients to anticipate, plan for, and mitigate, if not cure, DNA-based health challenges
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development of pharmaceuticals that treat gene-based diseases, replacing surgeries and chemotherapy
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Distributed energy--The evolution of distributed energy will reflect that of computing: just as computing has migrated from the 20th century's centralized model (powerful mainframes delivering applications to remote workstations) to today's decentralized model (PCs and networks), so energy generation and delivery will move from central to distributed sources, increasingly featuring local generators that can be linked when needed for greater output. Specific innovations will include:
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advanced electric storage devices and batteries at all scales
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new power systems with source-switching flexibility
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new energy management systems
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Pervasive computing--Almost every device or object in consumers' lives will be both smart and networked, giving rise to an "Internet of things." Pervasive computing will drive the convergence of computing, the Internet, voice communications, and television--ultimately blurring categories of infotech products and services. Specific breakthroughs will include:
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very simple and inexpensive computing devices with integrated wireless telephone and Internet capabilities (the $100 computer)
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the "semantic Web," enabled by Web data that automatically self-organizes based on its content, allowing search tools or software agents to better identify relevant Web pages--not just find keywords on them
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intelligent interfaces, in some cases enabled by virtual reality
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Nanomaterials--Although nanotechnologies have received much attention, the R&D is progressing very slowly. But the experts expect major breakthroughs within the next two decades, including inexpensive ways to produce mass quantities of nanomaterials. In addition, the function of nanomaterials will move from "passive" to "active" with the integration of nanoscale valves, switches, pumps, motors, and other components.
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Biomarkers for health--While DNA-based diagnoses and cures have long been under the spotlight, this category of breakthroughs stresses prevention. Consumers today believe their lifestyle choices have long-term consequences for health, and at the same time they are becoming more knowledgeable about the life sciences. They want to be able to monitor their vital signs, broadly defined, in ways that are as affordable, easy to use, and private, as home scales are for monitoring weight. Potential breakthroughs here include:
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individualized, private, and self-administered diagnostics for multiple physical parameters such as blood sugar, urine, C-reactive proteins, HDL, and LDL, as well as home diagnostic kits that detect early signs of diabetes, heart disease, and types of cancers
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personalized exercise equipment and regimens that deliver customized benefits (for weight control, blood pressure, blood sugar, etc.)
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advanced CAT scans, MRIs, and brain scans to identify disorders earlier and more accurately at less cost
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Biofuels--The expert panel felt strongly that significant further advances will be made in renewable biomass fuels, allowing them to supplement and eventually replace gasoline and diesel. Genetically modified organisms may be key to the development of biofuels.Anticipated breakthroughs include:
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high-energy blends of gasoline and diesel with biofuels (beyond the ethanol blends known today)
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biomass production of a methanol that can be used as a fuel for fuel cells
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new discoveries in plant genetics and biotechnologies specifically for energy content
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Advanced manufacturing--The long-term trend continues to favor "mass customization," or the ability to produce low quantities of specific products in a profitable way. Such processes may apply not just to factory manufacturing, but to many applications--potentially ranging from desktop publishing to specialty foods production. The experts anticipated the following breakthroughs by 2025:
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advanced computer-aided design and control
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multiple variable and inexpensive sensors linked with computers
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expert systems and advanced pattern-recognition software for very tight quality control
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Universal water--Water supplies are increasingly strained. Less than 2% of the planet's store of water is fresh, and most of that is trapped in polar icecaps, while much of the water available for human use is threatened by pollution. The future of water is simple: use less; keep the available fresh water clean; and make more fresh water from salt water to offset critical shortfalls. Enabling technologies will include:
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ultra-fine filters (probably from nanotechnology)
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new energy sources for desalination and purification, including hybrid systems that combine conventional and alternative power--especially solar power
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smart water-use technologies for agriculture and industry
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Carbon management--Discussions about mitigating climate change have focused on controlling greenhouse gases, yet methane and carbon dioxide, to name two principal greenhouse gases, are more difficult to measure and control than previous air pollutants. The expert panel, however, anticipates that technologies currently in R&D will prove to be effective for these gases--and that this area of work will be extremely important. Innovations will include:
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effective "measure, monitor, and verify" systems
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affordable and effective carbon capture and storage technologies and systems for coal-burning power plants
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low to zero emission controls for transportation
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Engineered agriculture--This area of genetics-based R&D is closely related to innovations in personalized medicine and biofuels, but with applications in agriculture and nutrition. Potential breakthroughs include:
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identification of specific genomes for desired growing and use qualities
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crop-produced pharmaceuticals and chemical feedstocks
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crops designed specifically for energy content and conversion
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Security and tracking--Although the experts gave less weight to breakthroughs for national security and counterterrorism than to those for consumer products and services (probably a result of how the topic question was framed), they envisioned a continued need for personal safety and security systems. Examples of potential breakthroughs in the personal-security realm include:
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completely autonomous security-camera systems with algorithms able to correctly interpret and identify all manner of human behavior
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multiple integrated sensors (including remote sensing)
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radio frequency tags for people and valuables
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Advanced transportation--In addition to the consideration of energy sources for transportation, the experts identified potentially significant breakthroughs in the management of private mobility, as well as advances in public transport. These include:
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personal transportation coordinated through wireless computer networks, information systems, and the Internet
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onboard sensors and computers for smart vehicles
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advanced high-speed rail
Over the next few weeks and months we will update ChangeWaves with more information about each of these top 12 areas for innovation.
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Image: (c) 2007 JupiterImages Corp.
Great, so now we're all guinea pigs in a future which is condemning us to total control and zero-privacy. What about this for a future development ? Global Wars spread due to the agressive behaviour masked as a response of mostly right-wing forces. Our oceans start dying faster and faster resulting in a food-pyramid breakdown. Centuries of polution damage our genetic material ever faster, adhd is just the beginning. People who refuse technology become criminalised. A civilian conflict starts over what to do with control-vs-privacy. Who controls the controller ?
Regarding Advanced Transportation. I think that gravity control thanks to Heim Theory will be the winner here:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heim_theory
it would be good if you at least mentioned synthetic biology...
Engineering based agriculture will be a non-event. We will use nanotechnology to make food. Why ? The absolute limit of agricultural efficiency is 2% (efficiency of chlorophyll), and most solar panels are at least (20% = ) 10x more efficient than the best of plants, and you're NEVER going to get near 1% efficiency for delivered, edible food, also, disasters are always looming around the corner. Solar panels also transmit that power to nearby devices with 99% efficiency. Therefore a electricity + co2 + water (athmospheric sourcing will do nicely, or just from the sewers ?) -> food machine only needs to be 2% efficient in order to beat the crap out of plants TODAY. In the future, with > 60% efficient solar panels, it only has to be 0.2% efficient. This will replace agriculture before soon. It will make the genetics research for plants irrelevant. And electricity can be used for other things as well, and we'll literally never run out of co2 or h2o on this planet.A machine like that would also make long-term interplanetary travel (as in 40 years between launch and landing) a possibility. Since humans can reproduce, we'll populate other planets (including mars) without having to massively exchange people between planets (hideously expensive)
Personal transport is overrated. This is why our planet is killing us. What we need is cheep, efficient, non-polluting, pervasive mass-transport. If the mass transport also allows us to tie in our personal transport, that would be fine, too (think driving your small commuter vehicle onto a bullet-train for long-distance travel).
Someone forgot about evolutionary engineering. Don't think it's going to be big? It will innovate technology innovation itself. We may be very good at engineering linear systems, but when it comes to deep complexity or things that interface with non-linear systems, we are not very good.
I'm surprised that there is no mention of robotics. Some of the technology there could be covered by pervasive computing I suppose, but I foresee a huge area of technological innovation in robotics at some point, probably long before 2025. Granted, there are two major roadblocks to pervasive robotics, namely really good AI and battery power, and advances in these enabling technologies have been proceeding pretty slowly. But I predict that cheap computing, in conjunction with nanomaterials to provide low cost sensor networks, will produce significant advances in 'low-level' AI. By that, I'm talking about the kinds of basic intelligence that will allow robots to effectively move around, recognize and manipulate objects in human domestic environments. I expect this will lead to limited and exploratory use of robots by consumers, somewhat analogous to the early personal computer era of the 1980s. But at some point, ongoing advances in pattern recognition, planning and problem-solving will change robots from toys to useful workers. I assert that this will occur in a huge wave of technological innovation before 2025.
There are some significant challenges associated with biofuels. They conflict with food production. They tend to have extrodinarily low EROI. A by product, NO2, is a worse green house gas than CO2. Farmers use fossil fuels in fertilizers, pesticides, and tractors to grow them. It would take nearly all of the world's ariable land to make enough. That is my understanding of biofuels. I look forward to see how your next article on biofuels answers these challenges.
Interesting stuff. Since I work in the field, it's always good to hear predictions relating to energy and carbon management.I think it wouldn't hurt to mention the possibility of the unknown: it's some time till 2025, and I'd like to bet that in that time there'll be some significant technological breakthroughs/discoveries that none of the experts could have predicted.
How short sighted to actually say biofuel will be a major technology in the future. Biofuel is a blatant attempt by oil companies to move us on to another easily controlled resource and keep us sucking from their teat. Electric vehicles are here: http://www.diyelectriccar.com/blogs/2007/11/six-major-preproduction-electric-vehicles-compared.htmlthose 6 are up for sale over the next 2 years. Who is going to drive a car that produces greenhouse gas AND uses an expensive fuel when they can just plug one of these in?
The Left-Wing Politicians behind pushing Global Warming on us, have done their best to sabotage new technologies and alternative energy research so they can make a profit selling their carbon credits, and have their oil and energy stocks go up in value. Meanwhile the right-wing politicians are fighting the Global Warming movement because they saw that the scientific data was fudged and the margin of error on the GW statistics is really high and temp probes have been placed near heat sources, and they own oil and energy stock as well.Moderates and Independents like myself have pushed for Open Sourcing new technology so that it can be used to create low cost alternative energy sources, and bring down the cost of new technology to affordable levels.As it stands both the left and right conspire to make sure that hybrid car batteries cost $10,000USD so that hybrid cars, suvs, vans, trucks, will never be economical and it will force more people (mostly poor and middle-class) to own used automobiles that guzzle gas and drive up their oil stocks. If we open source battery technology for hybrids it will lower the cost from tens of thousands to tens of hundreds or less. We need to open source hydrogen fuel cell batteries so that it will be as cheap as $100USD and then we can build a hybrid car for under $5000 if not $2000 and then the poor and middle-class can afford them and stop putting out so much CO2 and burn so much gas.We need to use hydrogen as a fuel source ASAP! Water can be electronically filtered into two atoms of hydrogen and one atom of oxygen, and if we use hydrogen instead of oil, we can cut down the cost of fuel. We have water over 2/3rds of the planet Earth. Plenty of hydrogen can be filtered from water. If Global Warming is melting ice caps, we need to process the extra water into hydrogen to stop the flooding of coastlines.To fight AIDS, STDs, and super bugs, we need to modify the human T-Cell to fight off those viruses using genetic engineering. Human skin cells can easily be turned into stem cells without the need to use fetal stem cells and upset the religious people, most people shed off a lot of human skin cells every day, so they wouldn't miss them. Just sleep on a special blanket that collects them, and then process them into stem cells, and then into Super T-Cells to fight of the viruses that are killing off mass numbers of human beings.We have the technology today to do these things, but both the left and right tie things up in bureaucracy and red tape and buy up patents and make sure they never get used. But if we start open sourcing technology for these things, we can fight the politics and bureaucracy and red tape and make them a reality.
I agree with Dana that Personal transport is overrated. However I think rather than spending the energy to transport people all over the globe we will develop convincingly real virtual reality environments used for creating virtual work places, vacation spots, conferences, etc. I think our need for physical travel will decrease sharply in the not too distant future.
I think you left out fusion power:http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2007/03/mr-fusion.htmlBussard Fusion Reactorhttp://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2006/11/easy-low-cost-no-radiation-fusion.htmlEasy Low Cost No Radiation FusionIt has been funded:http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2007/08/bussard-reactor-funded.htmlBussard Reactor FundedThe above reactor can burn Deuterium which is very abundant and produces lots of neutrons or it can burn a mixture of Hydrogen and Boron 11 which does not.The implication of it is that we will know in 6 to 9 months if the small reactors of that design are feasible.If they are we could have fusion plants generating electricity in 10 years or less depending on how much we want to spend to compress the time frame. A much better investment that CO2 sequestration.BTW Bussard is not the only thing going on in IEC. There are a few government programs at Los Alamos National Laboratory, MIT, the University of Wisconsin and at the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana among others.The Japanese and Australians also have programs.
"...intelligent interfaces, in some cases enabled by virtual reality"Again with the virtual reality! Enough! Nobody wants to wear goggles to get something done.
Hey Tom, isn't photosynthesis much more efficient than 2%? To quote from Wikipedia:"Through photosynthesis, sunlight energy is transferred to molecular reaction centers for conversion into chemical energy with nearly 100-percent efficiency. The transfer of the solar energy takes place almost instantaneously, so little energy is wasted as heat."
These break throughs are really one can imagine, Will be our future. One day we will feel this has happened. But i really doubt the time frame that the author has set. Time is changing so fast, that the necessity and demand for such things will arrive by 2020 itself or even before that.
Rob, Tom - Photosynthesis efficiency:http://www.upei.ca/~physics/p261/Content/Sources_Conversion/Photo-_synthesis/photo-_synthesis.htm
I'm not really agreeing with this:""" Distributed energy—The evolution of distributed energy will reflect that of computing: just as computing has migrated from the 20th century’s centralized model (powerful mainframes delivering applications to remote workstations) to today’s decentralized model (PCs and networks) """Indeed we had mainframes, then networked PCs, but funny, we're moving back to mainframe approach once again. PCs and individual pizzabox style servers are not very efficient in utilising CPU power, hence enterprises are moving towards virtualisation. It is many PCs, but virtual, running on one bigger... mainframe? :) There are many reasons for that, but main ones are centralised management and better, more efficient utilisation of the resources.If we draw the analogy, having many small energy suppliers will bring us management and operations overhead, which will increase cost of the energy and might increase the polution.
No mentions about the Singularity?
Brilliant text!, dude