Silicon Valley & the Decline of Infotech
SILICON VALLEY -- Arriving in the heart of Silicon Valley to deliver a presentation that says infotech’s most dynamic years are behind it is a little daunting.
The drive from San Francisco Airport to NASA’s Ames Research Center – site of this year’s CONTACT 2008 Conference – takes you straight down Highway 101, where some icons of the computer and Internet world are still scattered among the BMW and Lexus dealerships, strip malls, and industrial parks lining the freeway.
Gone, however, are the gung ho days of the past, when even the cab drivers had an Internet concept they were ready to pitch at the slightest sign of interest. A dozen years ago, the very air seemed to be charged with excitement over how the world was being changed by what was happening here. Five years ago, in the wake of the dot-com crash, there seemed to be a lingering hope that the glory days would return.
Not any more…at least not among those I spoke with.
My presentation at CONTACT 2008 focused on how timelines – charts that track long-term trends and patterns of change – could be used to identify two- to three-decade long changes in technology and society. As part of that presentation, I looked at patterns of change that pointed to the maturation of the infotech sector and the slowing growth that accompanies it. In another decade, infotech will no longer be THE high tech, I said. Instead, we would be watching the rise of molecular technology – the convergence of biotech and nanotech – as the new high tech, the technology that would change the world…and then I waited for a heated response.
Surprisingly, there wasn’t one. Instead, the notion that infotech is entering its mature phase was readily accepted.
That is not to say the industry is geriatric; there is still a lot that will happen between now and 2030. The next two decades, however, will be very different from the past two decades. We can expect to see innovation in the infotech sector shift from the introduction of novel new systems to a focus on continuous improvement – making the technology faster, smaller, and cheaper. We can also expect to see the continuing commoditization of infotech and continuing consolidation in the industry as the big players swallow a diminishing number of smaller players in an effort to maintain profitability.
That doesn’t mean infotech is finished. At the beginning of the 20th century, electricity – the high tech of that era – had matured. Electric lights and motors were finding their way into everyday life. Today, lights and electric motors are everywhere, yet we pay no attention to them…unless, perhaps, when they fail. Infotech will see the same future; small, cheap, and everywhere, but the industry will be just as exciting as making light bulbs or electric motors.
Image: (c) 2008 JupiterImages Corp.
Peter von Stackelberg
in Technology, Innovation, Infotech
Post a Comment
Share this: digg
| reddit
| del.icio.us
| ma.gnolia
| newsvine
| stumbleupon
View Printer Friendly Version
Email Article to Friend
Reader Comments