When we talk to clients and prospects, it's inevitable that this question is going to come up: "So, how accurate have your forecasts been in the past?"
We note that, even though we're futurists, we aren't in the business of making single-point predictions about the future. We believe that it is neither possible nor useful to declare that one particular future is the only possible outcome. That is rarely the case. Instead, we help our clients prepare for a range of futures, and pursue the one they desire.
Still, that doesn't mean we don't make forecasts about probable trend outcomes or likely changes. And we pay attention to how our forecasts pan out, as we want to know what we get right, and what we missed. Of course, being futurists, our focus in on the medium to long term, and so it takes a while for an assessment.
Lately we've been reviewing some materials from the early years of our Global Lifestyles project, and we seem to have done all right. Here are some of the changes that we anticipated:
Exergaming
In 2002 we wrote:
Games could be used to make exercise more entertaining, with game-like systems added to in-home and gym exercise equipment such as treadmills and stationary bikes. Systems to induce children to exercise could find favor, particularly if the anti-obesity movement builds.
Games such as Dance Dance Revolution began to be used in schools as of 2007, to combat obesity. Wii Fit came out in 2008 and has been topping the gaming charts for the Nintendo platform, with six million units sold in the US already.
Virtual entrepreneurship
In 2002 we said:
As more virtual economies grow, some [users] will also support themselves in virtual environments, selling virtual goods and services for real-world money.
Large numbers of people are beginning to make a living this way, for instance designing and selling virtual clothing within Second Life.
Genetic diets
In 2001 we wrote:
New kinds of nutraceuticals and other products will appear for people based on their genomes. Much of this will be science based, but there will also be a large market for semi-scientific and pseudo-scientific genetics products.
So-called genetics-based diets appeared in the mid-2000s, but most are still only loosely based on hard science and are of "limited use".
Social tracking
In 2002 we said:
Kids and teens might value the ability to enable their friends to find and track them, for social purposes. This capability could enhance the "dial-a-herd" culture that mobile phones and instant messaging are creating among teens, who use them to summon impromptu groups or find each other in public spaces.
These kinds of services began to roll out in 2007; companies such as Plazes and Loopt are dedicated to this kind of "geosocial networking."
(road image courtesy kwerfeldein, Flickr)
Credit crisis
In 2004 we wrote about the potential for crisis at Fannie Mae:
US mortgage lender Fannie Mae plays a critical role in keeping the mortgage market liquid. However, it is currently being scrutinized by regulators for improper accounting practices. Revelations regarding the insolvency of Fannie Mae could rock world credit markets.
Fannie Mae's insolvency and the subsequent government takeover in fall 2008 were crucial elements in tipping the US credit system into a larger financial crisis.
Branding the virtual
A 2002 forecast stated that:
Product placement could extend to ... selling virtual branded goods straight to consumers within games.
Companies such as Nike started operating virtual stores within Second Life, which didn't exist when the forecast was written. (See this post from KZERO for an interesting timeline on when major retail brands entered Second Life.)
Virtual work spaces
A 2002 forecast suggested that:
Multiplayer game systems will provide templates for software for other kinds of group activity, such as virtual meetings and collaborative dispersed work.
Large companies began to create virtual work spaces using Second Life and other platforms as of 2006-2007. There is also a budding industry that helps organizations hold virtual trade shows, job fairs, conferences, and other events, led by companies such as Unisfair.
Genealogy in the genome
In 2002 we wrote:
New services and products serving consumer interest in "who am I?" : Genealogy blended with genetics ... by 2010 it will be common and practical for people to have their DNA assessed and find the geographical region (down at least to the county or township) of their ancestry.
By 2007, many services offering genetics-based ancestor tracing had emerged. For $120 you can even trace the heritage of your mixed-breed mutt with services such as the Canine Heritage Breed Test.
Selling virtual goods
A 2002 forecast stated that:
Online products such as accessories for online avatars could become as valuable as actual goods. A custom electronic makeover of a net user's image could be as valuable as a Versace suit.
Virtual economies exploded in the 2000s, and online goods and characters became as valuable as many real-world goods. The overall virtual goods market in the US has been valued at over $200 million.
Chip-implanted humans
In 2002 we wrote:
Many ... tracking and monitoring devices have applications for senior populations, a market growing faster than the kids' market in World 1 countries.
As of 2007, Alzheimer's patients had begun to be implanted with RFID tracking devices -- an application which was not even permitted when the forecast was made.
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A list like this of course begs the question: what did you get wrong?
Fortunately, that is not as clear as what we got right. By the end of 2010, we suspect we will discover that we underestimated how change-resistant the American healthcare system is when it comes to adopting new technologies, and overestimated the speed at which some genetic applications could roll out, based on things we wrote in 2001. Stay tuned as we keep our eye on this question.
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