New briefs are available to subscribers of Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2008-17: Germany 2020
Germany faces significant economic and social challenges in the coming years. A new report from Deutsche Bank Research, Germany 2020, outlines four scenarios for Germany’s future and identifies seven variables that will help determine whether Germany successfully meets its challenges.

GL-2008-16: Wildcard—US Immigration Crackdown
Illegal immigration is receiving a great deal of attention in the US, with widespread calls to crack down on undocumented migrants, who are estimated to number about 12 million. A combination of border barriers, stepped-up federal enforcement, and state and local actions could substantially reduce illegal migration, with uncertain effects on the US economy.

GL-2008-15: India Online—Access and Activities
India’s online population is growing faster than that of any other country, propelling significant changes in Indians’ Internet habits. Access is shifting from public venues (kiosks, cybercafés) to private ones (dedicated home, office, and mobile connections), and Indians are expanding beyond basic communications to more advanced applications including social networking.

GL-2008-14: The Future of African Women
Despite greater female representation in African governments and more laws designed to protect their rights, African women face numerous impediments including entrenched gender roles, onerous household responsibilities, and a lack of flexible work opportunities. Urban women are seeing more progress than their rural peers.

GL-2008-12: Country Profile—Egypt
Egypt is the most populous nation in North Africa. It has a young and growing population, much of it still rural. Business conditions are improving with economic liberalization, but most Egyptians are still too poor to participate in a modern consumer lifestyle. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

GL-2008-9: European Environmentalism
A new survey of Europeans’ environmental values shows that while Europeans are environmentally aware, genuinely concerned, and willing to sacrifice to effect change, they tend to see environmentalism as a high-level issue best handled by governments and corporations, rather than a call for changing their own consumption behavior or lifestyles.

GL-2008-4: Indian Retail—An Update
India’s retail landscape is changing rapidly. While informal retail will continue to dominate, formal retailers are aggressively increasing their market share. Regulations will continue to be liberalized, making selling in India easier for foreign firms, and Indian consumers will have growing options for retail purchasing.

New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2008-13: Indian Kids' Leisure
Children are nearly one-third of India’s total population. Middle- and upper-income Indian families are increasingly indulging their kids, and many kids are themselves becoming savvy consumers who research products and influence family purchasing. Media, toy, and Internet companies are responding, and India’s children’s market is growing and becoming more formalized.

GL-2008-11: India Online—Demographics
India’s online population grew faster than any other country’s in 2007, reaching 46 million users and ranking it fifth globally in Internet usage. By 2012, India is expected to have over 148 million Internet users. This brief explores the demographics of one of the world’s top emerging Internet markets.

GL-2008-10: Technology and Deception
Technology has always extended the possibilities for deception, but information and communication technologies are enabling new dimensions in lying. Studies suggest that infotech makes deceit easier in three chief ways: it reduces the inhibitions to lying, makes it easier to create false impressions, and expands the pool of people who can be lied to.

GL-2008-8: Country Profile—UK
The United Kingdom, considered one of the most stable and prosperous nations in the world, has the second-largest economy in Europe. Favorable demographics may help it avoid some of the population problems of its European neighbors. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

GL-2008-6: Multiracial Americans
The US has anywhere from 6 million to 22 million multiracial residents. While the exact figure is difficult to pin down—largely because race is self-reported in Census data, and perceptions of an individual’s race can vary—the number is growing, and by some estimates could encompass one-third of the US population by 2100.

New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2008-7: Indian Values
Hundreds of millions of Indians are growing up with new exposure to urban and Western cultural flows. As a result, many are shifting away from traditional values emphasizing spiritualism, austerity, and filial obedience—and looking instead to Western values of materialism, independence, and gender equality.

GL-2008-5: Bottom of the Pyramid in India
Bottom-of-the-pyramid (BOP) consumers—those with less than $3,000 in annual purchasing power—comprise 95% of India’s population. In aggregate, India’s BOP consumers control $1.2 trillion in purchasing power. The brief discusses this vast underserved market and analyzes nine sectors where BOP consumers play a major role.

GL-2008-2: Culture and Change
Two sets of forces shape every society’s relationship to change: economic growth pushes change forward, while local culture molds the society’s unique responses to change. Awareness of this dynamic can help organizations understand how consumer values around the world are likely to evolve in the coming years.

New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2007-75: Cars in Russia
Car ownership in Russia is rising rapidly, increasing mobility and changing consumer behavior. Driving this trend are rising incomes, an expansion of consumer credit, new views on car ownership, and a flood of foreign automakers entering the Russian market. However, a number of obstacles could hinder future growth in the Russian automotive sector.

GL-2007-74: China's Demand for Quality Food
A 2007 US Department of Agriculture report found that China’s demand for quality food has risen significantly. Higher-income urban families are driving this trend: they are seeking convenience, ease, safety, and health in their food, and are willing to pay more for these characteristics. Among lower-income families, changes are less marked, and they must still devote nearly half their incomes to food.

GL-2007-73: Country Profile—South Korea
South Korea is a World 1 economy—the 11th largest in the world—with an urban, rapidly aging, tech-savvy population. Economic growth in South Korea is expected to outpace much of World 1, but war or reunification with North Korea could disrupt this scenario. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

GL-2007-72: Fighting Malnutrition
Malnutrition affects a third of the population in the developing world, with substantial health effects, especially on children. Nonprofit organizations and governments are working to fortify staple foods like salt and flour and to distribute nutritional supplements. An alternative approach would use biofortification to breed micronutrients into crops.

GL-2007-71: Evolving Radio
Digital technologies have created new radio formats including Internet radio, satellite radio, digital terrestrial radio, and podcasts. These formats are meeting peoples’ needs for content diversity, anytime-anywhere access, personalization, and participation.

 
New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2007-70: Discontinuities—Food
The agriculture and food sectors could experience a variety of discontinuities in the next three decades, ranging from disasters such as massive GM crop contamination or a global drop die-off, to breakthroughs such as health-enhanced crops or a “fat pill” to cure obesity. This is one in a series of briefs exploring discontinuities by industry sector.

GL-2007-69: Retail in Shanghai
Shanghai is one of China’s premier cities and its trends, styles, and habits are often leading indicators of change for the rest of the country. The retail environment in Shanghai is moving from stalls to malls, or from informal to formal arrangements, as wealth grows.

GL-2007-68: The Global Food Supply
Significant debate surrounds the question of whether the world will have enough food to feed itself in coming decades, in the face of potential dangers such as dwindling oil, climate change, and water shortages. However, analysis suggests that the food supply should be adequate to meet global needs to 2030.

GL-2007-67: Country Profile—Germany
Germany is a mature, wealthy World 1 country with a stable but aging population. It has the largest economy in Europe, but growth has been slow, in part due to the reintegration and rebuilding of the East. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

GL-2007-66: Wildcard—Artificial Meat
Artificial meat is produced by extracting cells from animals and stimulating their growth. As World 1 consumers increase their ethical and environmental concerns about traditional meat production, artificial meat could become a viable alternative, if the technology continues to advance and the “yuck factor” is overcome.

GL-2007-65: The Future of Cities
According to a report by the United Nations, the global migration into urban centers currently underway should last through at least 2030. The world’s urban population is projected to increase by around 1.7 billion by that year, with most of the increase concentrated in Worlds 2 and 3.

GL-2007-64: African Immigrants in the US
Africans are a small but fast-growing immigrant community in the United States. Arriving from over 30 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the roughly 1 million African immigrants are generally finding success, fueled by high educational levels and entrepreneurial drive.

GL-2007-63: Discontinuities—Mobility
New technologies, new business practices, policy changes, or international events could all trigger discontinuities that impact consumer mobility. This brief will explore the impacts of four potential mobility discontinuities: ultra-cheap cars, air taxis, closed borders, and automated driving.

GL-2007-62: European Attitudes
The European Commission report The Future of Europe assesses public attitudes towards the EU. It reveals that Europeans are generally happy with their own nations, yet interested in increased EU decision-making. While Europeans are relatively pro-EU, they remain divided on issues like enlargement—and are generally wary of globalization.

GL-2007-61: Country Profile—Algeria
Algeria is a World 2 Middle Eastern nation with a young and increasingly urban population. Political stability will be the key to Algeria’s economic growth as it emerges from the chaos of the 1990s. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

 
New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2007-60: Wildcard—Mass Infertility
The current evidence for sperm-count declines around the world is highly ambiguous. Nevertheless, scientists have linked reduced sperm counts to various drivers, including both lifestyles and environmental factors. While the probability is low, the potential exists for drastic declines in male fertility around the world.

GL-2007-59: Mobile Payment in World 1
Consumers have been able to use their mobile phones as e-wallets in Asia since 2004. In the United States and Europe mobile payments have been slower to catch on, but financial institutions and mobile providers are beginning to embrace the technology.

GL-2007-58: Discontinuities—Health
The global health sector could experience a wide variety of discontinuities in coming decades, ranging from disasters, such as a major pandemic or global contamination event, to significant breakthroughs—e.g., a successful campaign to eradicate tropical diseases in Worlds 2 and 3 or even a “cure” for aging.

GL-2007-57: Counterfeit Goods
The global trade in counterfeit goods is already widespread for luxury goods, apparel, and entertainment, and is a growing problem in industries like pharmaceuticals and auto parts. New anti-counterfeiting interventions are likely to focus on three areas: curbing demand through enforcement, responding to growing concerns about safety and security, and deploying new approaches to product authentication.

GL-2007-56: The Future of the Internet
The Pew report The Future of the Internet II summarizes the opinions of 742 international experts about the social, political, and economic future of the Internet out to 2020. The experts were asked to comment on seven scenarios based on foresight reports published by governmental, nongovernmental, and private organizations.

GL-2007-55: Wildcard—Banking in World 0
Financial institutions are considering setting up shop within online realms, potentially bringing the full range of real-world financial offerings (e.g., virtual asset trading, banking, exchange) into virtual worlds.

GL-2007-54: Asian Americans
After large-scale immigration in recent decades, the Asian-American population is growing in number, shifting to English, gaining higher levels of education, and earning higher incomes.

GL-2007-53: Country Profile—Chile
Chile is one of the most successful countries of Latin America. At the upper end of World 2 in its development, Chile has a strong economy, and business conditions are generally good. Relatively wealthy, Chilean consumers are enthusiastic users of mobile phones, and are going online in increasing numbers. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

GL-2007-52: Indian Economic Growth
India’s economy grew rapidly between 1985 and 2007—and this growth is projected to continue at a robust pace through 2025. A forecast by McKinsey & Company explores how this economic boom could radically reshape Indian consumer life by spurring increases in spending and drastically shifting income distribution.

GL-2007-51: Three Scenarios for Virtual Education
Virtual education is a growing trend in World 1 schools. With rising connectivity, virtual learning is likely to play an increasingly important role in the future of education. This brief describes three different evolutionary paths for virtual education.

 
New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2007-50: Wildcard—Recorded Lives
Lifelogging, the use of infotech to comprehensively record and archive a person’s experiences, could become a mainstream practice, due to declining hardware costs and rising consumer interest. Life recording would build on the trends witnessed in current blog, online photo album, and video journal websites.

GL-2007-49: China's Economic Prospects
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Chinese government’s Development Research Center of the State Council have jointly produced a set of 10 scenarios projecting China’s future economic growth to 2020. All of the scenarios conclude that China’s future growth will be positive and sustained at least until 2020, with different variations along the growth curve.

GL-2007-48: Assistive Clothing
Advances in materials and information technology are giving clothing new assistive roles such as aiding performance in leisure activities, enabling tasks that might otherwise be physically daunting or impossible, and providing medical or physical protection.

GL-2007-47: Reality Travel
Growing numbers of tourists are looking for authentic experiences that immerse them in an issue and allow them to see a society firsthand. This “reality travel” can involve volunteering in a village in South America or visiting a slum in Africa.

GL-2007-46: Country Profile—Vietnam
Vietnam is a poor World 2 country with a rapidly expanding economy. Vietnam’s population is still predominantly rural despite a rising urban population, and wealth remains concentrated in cities. Government restrictions have stunted Internet and mobile growth, but both technologies are spreading. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

GL-2007-45: India's Castes
India’s caste system—the longstanding tradition of social stratification by birth clan—remains entrenched in most of the country. However, educational opportunities, economic development, value shifts, and globalization are all acting to blur the dividing lines between castes and provide more opportunity for upward social mobility.

GL-2007-44: E-Sports
Driven by its ever-growing popularity, computer gaming has become a media spectacle in some markets, This brief examines three possible developments arising from this concept: games as mass-media entertainment, massively multiplayer in-person games, and celebrity gamers.

GL-2007-43: Wildcard—Bye Bye Bees
Colony collapse disorder (CCD)—the disappearance of honeybees from commercial hives—is alarming but probably temporary, most experts say. But what if CCD isn’t temporary? The long-term loss of honeybees could be calamitous for agriculture and the downstream businesses that depend on it. This brief explores the business and consumer impacts of this low-probability wildcard.

GL-2007-42: BOP Markets by Region
Consumers at the bottom of the pyramid (BOP)—4 billion low-income people whose collective purchasing power is estimated at $5 trillion—comprise a large majority of the populations in four world regions: Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. A regional analysis is valuable when approaching BOP markets, since they differ widely in wealth distribution, urban/ rural composition, and other variables.

GL-2007-41: Country Profile—Belgium
Belgium is a World 1 European country with a large economy and good business conditions, but slow growth. A rapidly aging population could pose significant challenges for Belgium in the future. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

What will likely be the most important scientific and technological breakthroughs with significant commercial value and impacts on the lives of consumers out to 2025?

To begin to answer that question, S)T's Technology Foresight program conducted a virtual, global focus group of experts in technology, innovation, and business strategy. The group included experts from the Association of Professional Futurists, Tekes, Duke University, Hasbro, Worldwatch, General Motors, Shell, Johnson Controls, and Oxford University, among others.

After consolidating input from the expert panel and analysis by Social Technologies' futurists, what emerged was our list of top 12 areas for tech innovation through 2025:

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New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2007-40: Russian Healthcare  
Despite an abundance of doctors, Russian healthcare is struggling: a 2006 US government estimate found that only 20% of Russians had access to quality healthcare. Lack of funding, corruption, outdated technology, and an aging and ill populace have all combined to strain the country’s medical system.  
 
GL-2007-39: Rethinking Obesity 
Health professionals and the general public alike have increasingly challenged conventional wisdom about obesity, as researchers have found that obesity may be heavily shaped by inborn biological factors, its health implications may be overblown, and Americans may be growing more accepting of overweight people. 
 
GL-2007-38: Wildcard—Chipping People 
GPS, RFID, and medical implant technology have advanced to the point that it is technologically feasible to implant advanced microchips in humans. This raises the possibility of widespread use of implants in areas such as child and elder safety, debit and credit payment, and personal medical records.  
 
GL-2007-37: The Bottom-of-the-Pyramid Market 
The bottom-of-the-pyramid (BOP) market is made up of a global population of 4 billion low-income consumers whose collective purchasing power is estimated at $5 trillion. Global companies are increasingly targeting this massive group of underserved consumers. This brief examines new data on eight market sectors and the opportunities and challenges they present. 
 
GL-2007-36: Gamer Demographics  
Computer games are now one of the major recreational pastimes in Worlds 1 and 2. As the number of gamers surges, gaming demographics are becoming more balanced, across both age and gender. Older and younger people are playing, as are more girls and women, on consoles, mobile devices, and online.

Image courtesy Woodfighter (Flickr)
 

By Andy Hines, Director of Custom Projects

Part 5 of a 5-part series on The Future of Happiness

Our study on the Future of Happiness found that 12-to-24 year olds are pursuing four principal pathways to happiness. The final path can be called “Virtual Community” — they are integrating the online and virtual worlds seamlessly into their pursuit of happiness.

It is useful to think of youths' relationship with technology as a native language: unlike most Americans, they have grown up with it. For older folks like me, technology is typically a second language. It can be learned, but the relationship is never as quite as comfortable. In fact, when we suggest to some of our clients that youth are total comfortable being immersed with technology, they almost feel bad for them. “Poor kids, all alone one with their technology,” they muse. Au contraire! Participating in social networking and virtual worlds is quite natural for these youth, and a great source of happiness.

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By Andy Hines, Director of Custom Projects

Part 4 of a 5-part series on The Future of Happiness

According to our research, 12-to-24-year-olds are pursuing four principal pathways to happiness. The first two paths included "Transitional Traditional," and "All About Me."

The third path is “ MyLife, MyTime, MyWay," for we will see this group take control of their pursuit of happiness. They are not expecting society or anyone or anything else to provide happiness for them. This notion of taking control of happiness differs from previous generations, where happiness was more seen as a birthright. For these youth, it’s not taken for granted, but is something that needs to be planned for and worked towards.

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By Andy Hines, Director of Custom Projects

Part 3 of a 5-part series on The Future of Happiness

According to our research, 12-to-24-year-olds are pursuing four principal pathways to happiness. The second of these is “All About Me,” or a focus on personal development and a “what’s in it for me” perspective on the world.

Whereas the youth on the "Transitional Traditional" pathway rely on family, friends, and faith for support, these youth rely on themselves. Dreams of beauty, fame, and fortune are central to those on this pathway, but here we also we see their practical nature kicking in. They realize that not everyone can be rich and famous, and therefore they have developed a “Plan B.” Do they want to appear on MTV’s “Real World?” Absolutely. But are they going to jump off a bridge if they don’t? Absolutely not.

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New briefs are available to Global Lifestyles clients on the project website:

GL-2007-35: Rising Indian Consumerism 
Attitudes among India’s consumers have changed substantially in the last decade. Indians are redirecting their saving toward personal consumption, and acquisition of all kinds of durable goods has risen, according to a study by Ashok Gopal and Rajesh Srinivasan. At the same time, they found, faith in Indian brands is rising. 
 
GL-2007-34: Country Profile—Kuwait 
Kuwait is a small, oil-rich World 2 country in a challenging position at the head of the Persian Gulf between Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Kuwait’s population is divided between wealthy natives and a large population of foreign workers, who make up more than half the inhabitants. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.
 
GL-2007-33: The US Healthcare System 
This brief examines three possible scenarios for the US healthcare system to 2020, spanning a range of outcomes from incremental reform to universal healthcare. 
 
GL-2007-32: Indian Mobility 
Indian mobility is increasing, as use of railroads, cars, and aircraft rises, carrying people further, faster. This growth is fueled by the expansion of the middle class, higher incomes, and increased investment in all kinds of transportation infrastructure. 
 
GL-2007-31: Wildcard—Genetically Modified Pets
As genetic modification advances, biotech labs could join kennels and animal shelters as sources for the perfect pet. Biotechnology could produce anything from more functional animals to fantasy creations. However, public acceptance is uncertain. 

Part 2 of a 5-part series on The Future of Happiness

According to our research 12-24-year-olds are pursuing four principal pathways to happiness. The first is what we call “transitional traditional.”

In fact, this group appreciates tradition, in the sense that they value the cultural structures they are growing up with. They like the familiarity of cultural activities and rituals, such as Thanksgiving and family reunions, but they aren’t necessarily attached to the specifics of how these traditions are carried out.

So in the future we’ll see them celebrating Thanksgiving – but instead of wearing a new sport coat and serving a 15-poiund turkey, they’ll be donning Birkenstocks and eating the latest vegan tofu recipe. Instead of watching the Dallas Cowboys on a network TV station, the group might gather around and participate in a multiplayer online game.

At first glance, this pathway may look like old news. But on further investigation, we foresee that the reinterpretation of traditional will lead to different approaches to the pursuit of happiness.

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Part 1 in a 5-part series on The Future of Happiness

By Andy Hines, Director of Custom Projects

What do today’s 12 to 24 year olds consider to be happiness? That was a question MTV hired us to look at earlier this year, and the findings were intriguing.

We discovered that, like most people, this group pursues happiness with a combination of three strategies: the pleasure of the moment, relationships with family and friends, and the long-term search for meaning and purpose.

After probing more deeply, though, we found that more than any generation that has come before them, today’s youths recognize that happiness is something that can and should worked toward. In short, we found they have adopted a very practical approach to happiness.

They see an uncertain and rapidly changing world and recognize they can’t do it alone, and thus are highly reliant on friends, and perhaps more than is recognized, on family—and perhaps a bit more surprisingly—on spirituality or faith. Thus, the tools youth use to pursue happiness could be summed up as friends, family, and faith.

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