Recently in Social Technologies Category

New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2008-47: US Generations at Work--Baby Boomers
Demographics, Work Styles, and Characteristics
Born between 1946 and 1964, the baby boomers are a large generation whose values and attitudes have strongly influenced US workplaces. As they reach retirement age, millions are expected to postpone retirement indefinitely and instead stay in their jobs or start "encore careers." Their choices will affect most organizations as well as the younger generations behind them. This brief is one in a series covering the demographics, characteristics, work styles, and attitudes of the four generations that will collectively occupy US workplaces through 2020.

GL-2008-46: Australian E-Readiness
World 1 Leader
Australia is ranked fourth in the world for e-readiness. In many ways the country is among the world's leaders in terms of technology adoption, with a large majority of Australians accessing the Web regularly and mobile phone penetration at nearly 100%. Nevertheless, the country is at a crossroads in terms of Internet infrastructure and its future potential for advanced applications.

GL-2008-45: US Generations at Work--Generation X
Demographics, Work Styles, and Characteristics
Born from 1965-1978, Generation X is a comparatively small generation, sandwiched between the larger pools of baby boomers and Millennials, yet they have already had a distinctive influence on US workplaces. Their future at work will be shaped partly by external forces, such as how the boomers handle retirement and the overall economic climate. This brief is one in a series covering the four generations that will collectively occupy US workplaces through 2020.

GL-2008-44: The Changing Nature of Friendship
Online and Real-World Friendship Start to Merge
Friendship in World 1 is changing rapidly. Generational attitudes toward friendship are diverging, online friendship is becoming better understood, and social networking is shifting to mobile and local channels. As these trends advance, virtual and real-world friendships will blur, with significant implications for consumer lifestyles.

New briefs are available to subscribers of Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

Multimedia Feature: Ambient Social Awareness
Innovations in social networking media, along with generational value shifts and the continued rise of time pressure, are driving the rise of "ambient social awareness"--the ability for consumers to use mobile, location-aware infotech to access personally meaningful information as they move through their daily lives. These new capacities hold significant implications for consumer lifestyles in World 1.

(Global Lifestyles is inaugurating a new series of multimedia features, highlighting themes and trends from the project's knowledgebase which our editors believe are of particular significance for GL sponsors and presenting them in highly scannable, concise formats.)

GL-2008-43: Country Profile--United Arab Emirates
The United Arab Emirates is a federation of seven city-states (emirates) on the Persian Gulf. This World 2 country derives much of its GDP from oil, but is attempting to diversify into finance and tourism. Business conditions are good and the quality of consumer life rivals that in World 1 markets--at least for official citizens. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds. 

GL-2008-42: International Travel in 2020
Despite rising fuel costs, economic downturn, and heightened consumer awareness of climate change, the UN World Tourism Organization projects a dramatic increase in international travelers by 2020. The UNWTO forecasts there will be nearly 1.6 billion international travelers in 2020, about double the amount in 2008--and that a growing share of these travelers will both originate from and travel to Worlds 2 and 3. 

GL-2008-41: US Generations at Work--Millennials
Born from 1979-1998, the Millennial generation is larger than the baby boom generation and will be at least as influential on US society and work culture. As they move into the workforce, Millennials are bringing their own values and work styles--and posing new challenges for managers and colleagues. This brief is one in a series covering the four generations that will collectively occupy US workplaces through 2020.

GL-2008-40: Russian Mobiles--Update
In just a few years, Russia's mobiles sector has grown from nearly nonexistent to one of Europe's largest mobiles markets. Convenience and ease of access have helped make mobiles the channel of choice for both communications and Internet access for millions of Russians. Though growth is slowing from the earlier red-hot pace, next-generation technologies like 3G and WiMAX are opening the potential for a second boom in Russian consumers' use of mobiles.

GL-2008-39: Chinese Environmental Attitudes
China's worsening ecological issues are affecting quality of life, health, and longevity for millions of consumers. Some citizens are becoming more active about the deteriorating state of the environment. With many viewing it as an undesirable but necessary byproduct of development, their focus is primarily on companies that violate the government's pollution regulations.

GL-2008-38: Just-in-Time Lifestyles
Consumers in World 1 are increasingly making plans on the fly, based on real-time input from their friends, family, and co-workers. This "just-in-time lifestyle" is driven by time pressures and by Millennials' aptitude for social networking, and enabled by emerging social media that allow people to share real-time and locational content on their mobile devices. Just-in-time lifestyles could reshape the way people socialize, work, and shop.

From the second chapter of "Thinking about the Future," a book co-edited by Social Technologies' Andy Hines and futurist Peter Bishop, comes this entry: Conduct a Stakeholder Analysis.

Here's why: Stakeholder analysis identifies individuals or groups that may influence or be influenced by the foresight activity, and explores the implications of their involvement. Stakeholder analysis may be undertaken individually or with a team. It is best performed after the issue is clearly defined, and should be updated as the understanding of the issue and the system in which it is embedded evolves. It is preferable to convene a diverse group with different perspectives on the issue to ensure all relevant stakeholders are identified.
Stakeholder analysis entails various approaches and formats, but all of these follow the basic steps described below.

Key steps: The first step is to identify the stakeholders: the people, groups, and institutions that currently or potentially influence the issue, either positively or negatively. Second, identify the specific interests these stakeholders have in the issue being analyzed. Will they be positively or adversely affected? Will it require them to take action or make changes? Kees van der Heijden (2002) suggests the following useful interview questions to help elicit the needed information:

From the second chapter of "Thinking about the Future," a book co-edited by Social Technologies' Andy Hines and futurist Peter Bishop, comes this advice: Take an integral view of the issue.

Here's why: An integral view enables the analyst to identify and explore the broader context and connections in which the issue is embedded. It involves coming to the activity from different perspectives and exploring the issue from different angles.

Integral philosopher Ken Wilber (2000) has proposed a scheme for an integral view, which has been adapted to foresight by futurist Richard Slaughter and colleagues. Wilber suggests that many issues or problems are not properly analyzed because they are considered from a single perspective that neglects others. He has constructed a four-quadrant matrix that provides a framework for bringing multiple perspectives to bear. The ends of the horizontal axis are the "inner" and "outer" perspectives, and the ends of the vertical axis are the "individual" and "social" perspectives. Therefore, the four perspectives of an integral analysis are:

• The Intentional, or individual-interior "inner world of identity and meaning" (focus on psychology)
• The Cultural, or social-interior "world of cultures and shared meaning" (focus on culture)
• The Behavioral, or individual-exterior "world of individual capability and behavior" (focus on behavior)
• The Social, or social-exterior "physical world" (focus on systems)

Key steps: Wilber's four-quadrant matrix provides a useful check or reference throughout a strategic foresight activity. While it has the greatest utility within Scanning, it can be used in any of the six major steps outlined in this book. For example, during Framing, it is useful to adopt the integral perspective to consider aspects of the issue involving individual psychology or motivation, cultural trends, and supporting systems or infrastructure.

New briefs are available to subscribers of Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project.

Editor's Pick 

GL-2008-35: Participatory Mapping
Future Applications
Mapping is becoming participatory, with millions of people modifying and creating maps. They are mapping jogging routes, businesses in their hometowns, and childhood memories--and then making the maps available to others online. New ways to map are leading to new ways to organize information, to reveal what consumers think is important, and even to socialize.

Newly published 

GL-2008-30: Country Profile--Mexico
Demography, Business Conditions, and Consumer Life
Mexico is a large World 2 nation with solid economic prospects. Business conditions are good, but the country has a high level of corruption and faces internal stability threats, especially from powerful drug cartels. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

GL-2008-31: Middle Eastern Mobiles
Change Is a Call Away
Mobile phones are spreading quickly throughout the Middle East: the region is the second-fastest-growing mobile market in the world. Mobiles are extending social freedoms, as well as facilitating business and entertainment. Moreover, they are becoming the primary Internet access point for Middle Easterners.

From the second chapter of "Thinking about the Future," a book co-edited by Social Technologies' Andy Hines and futurist Peter Bishop, comes this entry: Map the system under consideration.

Here's why: Effective problem-solving requires understanding the context of the issue at hand. The best way to do this is to map the issue in a simple systems map--identifying the key stakeholders and driving forces influencing the issue, then exploring the relationships among them.

Mapping an issue in its systemic context is done at the very beginning of a strategic activity. The systems map lays out a framework for the activity. It points to important stakeholders to interview, trend areas to investigate, and assumptions that need to be checked. The map will evolve as the study proceeds and more is learned about the system. Also, new issues and stakeholders will likely emerge as the activity proceeds.

Key steps: Creating a systems map is straightforward, involving several steps. First, define the issue crisply. Studying the future of communications, for example, is likely to be overbroad. Studying the future of keypad size on mobile phones might be overly narrow. An appropriate scope might be the future of mobile-phone handsets.

At a very man-friendly bar called the Black Sheep Pub and Restaurant in Philadelphia, CBS Early Show anchor Maggie Rodriguez talked to five men who each represented one of the personas outlined in the study.

From the plaza of the GM building in New York City, she introduced the piece with this:

Let's talk about men. The guy network Spike TV teamed up with Social Technologies and discovered there are basically five different types of guys, as I've mentioned: young carefrees, worry warriors, good ol' boys, mac daddies, and above-average Joes. And lucky me, I got to spend time with each type earlier this week at the Black Sheep Bar in Philadelphia.

She then cut to the segment in which she interviewed each guy--as well as Chris Carbone, Social Technologies' Director of Programs and author of the study, and Kimberly Maxwell, the senior director of brand and consumer research for Spike TV. Some excerpts:

Click to Read More ...

We were pleased to see our Speed of Change Index covered in the new issue of Foreign Policy.

As the magazine says,

How swiftly or slowly life changes in particular countries is the subject of the Speed of Change Index, which measures changes in urbanization, literacy, GDP per capita, civil liberties, and access to a telephone, TV, and the Internet in countries during the last 15 years.... The index reveals where citizens' needs are rapidly changing, new markets are opening, and the risk of instability runs high.

The magazine's graphic shows selected countries in Europe, Africa, and Asia, but the index actually includes nearly every country on Earth, with the exception of some microstates.

Image: Social Technologies

Hot off the presses is the July-August issue of The Futurist magazine, featuring an article by Social Technologies' futurist Andy Hines.

Entitled "Consumer Trends in Three Different 'Worlds," it is the first in a two-part series in which Hines looks at the big trends in demography, money, and consumerism that will shape the world in the next decade.

"When I was writing this book, countless people asked me which job I thought was the coolest," explains author Alexandra Levit in her new book, How'd You Score That Gig? -- A Guide to the Coolest Jobs, and How To Get Them. "And while I certainly tried hard not to play favorites, I couldn't help being especially intrigued by this one."

She's talking about the job described starting on page 224: futurist. It's one of 65 gigs she lists in the eight-chapter book, which offers career advice based on seven personality types: adventurer, creator, data head, entrepreneur, investigator, networker, and nurturer.

A futurist, Levit says, is a job for an investigator -- "the ones always the asking the teacher questions, and the ones you wanted to get on your team for group projects because they were so darn smart and motivated."

She starts off the section with a quote from Social Technologies'  futurist Josh Calder.

 A futurist must be inquisitive and open to diverse viewpoints. If you think the world is black-and-white, you will not do very well understanding it, because it isn't. The future is not found in one ideology or one book. You need to be ready to listen, because getting more viewpoints will always improve your grasp of future possibilities. You should be optimistic on some level, so that you can help people prepare for and shape better futures, while not being blind to real problems.

Levit writes:

As a futurist for Washington-based firm Social Technologies ... Josh spends his days trying to discover what is changing in the world and what that means for the future. "I devote part of each day to learning: looking at that day's flow of scan hits to see what they might hint about the future," Josh says. .... "I feel that it is a privilege to know a little bit about the future--with only the slight downside that we sometimes have to wait a while for things we know are coming."

Buy the book.

On his blog yesterday, marketing guru Seth Godin raised the generalists-vs.-specialists debate and asked what benefit generalists bring. Before I had time to dash off a response, Godin himself defended the need for generalists, writing,

"It's okay to specialize in being a generalist, of course. By that, I mean that there are many problems ... where someone who can see wide and doesn't have an allegiance to a particular solution is exactly the right person to call. I rely on generalists all the time, and so do you."

To be fair to Godin's argument, he adds, "My point is that you never call on these people when there's a better specialist available."

We at S)T pride ourselves on being generalists--our staff of futurists is composed of Ph.D. chemists, historians, English majors, MBAs, and--yes--the occasional trained futurist. Collectively we thrive because we bring a divergent set of training, backgrounds and worldviews to our clients. We are generalists because, as foresight professionals, our job is to look at the big picture and to make the connections that experts often miss. Experts, while knowledgeable, often see trees, rather than the forest, mountain, river etc. We don't lack for expertise, for in many cases our clients have all the expert knowledge we need and our job is to tease it out of them in order to help them see the larger picture of the future or futures.

My answer to Godin would be that all of my non-futures-trained colleagues combine to create a specialized knowledge base, and that it does our clients no good for us to know everything they do. That is a pointless duplication of resources. The benefit to hiring a firm of dedicated generalists is that collectively we create/own a specialized knowledge. This is reinforced as we bounce from project to project, so that one of our futurists may be writing on mobile telecommunications on Monday and infant formula on Friday. The generalist mindset allows our team to see the connections that exist between disparate businesses, consumers, and technologies. As a result, the sum of the whole is greater than its attendant parts.

That is why we are generalists.

Image: Angelrays (Flickr)

New briefs are available to subscribers of Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2008-17: Germany 2020
Germany faces significant economic and social challenges in the coming years. A new report from Deutsche Bank Research, Germany 2020, outlines four scenarios for Germany’s future and identifies seven variables that will help determine whether Germany successfully meets its challenges.

GL-2008-16: Wildcard—US Immigration Crackdown
Illegal immigration is receiving a great deal of attention in the US, with widespread calls to crack down on undocumented migrants, who are estimated to number about 12 million. A combination of border barriers, stepped-up federal enforcement, and state and local actions could substantially reduce illegal migration, with uncertain effects on the US economy.

GL-2008-15: India Online—Access and Activities
India’s online population is growing faster than that of any other country, propelling significant changes in Indians’ Internet habits. Access is shifting from public venues (kiosks, cybercafés) to private ones (dedicated home, office, and mobile connections), and Indians are expanding beyond basic communications to more advanced applications including social networking.

GL-2008-14: The Future of African Women
Despite greater female representation in African governments and more laws designed to protect their rights, African women face numerous impediments including entrenched gender roles, onerous household responsibilities, and a lack of flexible work opportunities. Urban women are seeing more progress than their rural peers.

GL-2008-12: Country Profile—Egypt
Egypt is the most populous nation in North Africa. It has a young and growing population, much of it still rural. Business conditions are improving with economic liberalization, but most Egyptians are still too poor to participate in a modern consumer lifestyle. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

GL-2008-9: European Environmentalism
A new survey of Europeans’ environmental values shows that while Europeans are environmentally aware, genuinely concerned, and willing to sacrifice to effect change, they tend to see environmentalism as a high-level issue best handled by governments and corporations, rather than a call for changing their own consumption behavior or lifestyles.

GL-2008-4: Indian Retail—An Update
India’s retail landscape is changing rapidly. While informal retail will continue to dominate, formal retailers are aggressively increasing their market share. Regulations will continue to be liberalized, making selling in India easier for foreign firms, and Indian consumers will have growing options for retail purchasing.

New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

GL-2008-13: Indian Kids' Leisure
Children are nearly one-third of India’s total population. Middle- and upper-income Indian families are increasingly indulging their kids, and many kids are themselves becoming savvy consumers who research products and influence family purchasing. Media, toy, and Internet companies are responding, and India’s children’s market is growing and becoming more formalized.

GL-2008-11: India Online—Demographics
India’s online population grew faster than any other country’s in 2007, reaching 46 million users and ranking it fifth globally in Internet usage. By 2012, India is expected to have over 148 million Internet users. This brief explores the demographics of one of the world’s top emerging Internet markets.

GL-2008-10: Technology and Deception
Technology has always extended the possibilities for deception, but information and communication technologies are enabling new dimensions in lying. Studies suggest that infotech makes deceit easier in three chief ways: it reduces the inhibitions to lying, makes it easier to create false impressions, and expands the pool of people who can be lied to.

GL-2008-8: Country Profile—UK
The United Kingdom, considered one of the most stable and prosperous nations in the world, has the second-largest economy in Europe. Favorable demographics may help it avoid some of the population problems of its European neighbors. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

GL-2008-6: Multiracial Americans
The US has anywhere from 6 million to 22 million multiracial residents. While the exact figure is difficult to pin down—largely because race is self-reported in Census data, and perceptions of an individual’s race can vary—the number is growing, and by some estimates could encompass one-third of the US population by 2100.

Friday proved to be my first true introduction to luxury, Dubai-style.

For most of the morning, I explored two of Dubai's largest upper-income malls: Burjuman and Wafi.

The Wafi is a celebration of everything that is over the top about Dubai. Arab fashion boutiques offering hand-stitched, made-to-order haute couture sit beside interior decorating stores (with all products made in limited editions, solely for individual outlets) and luxury European clothing and fashion shops, filling the mall with hundreds of high-end retailers, all within the context of an elaborate ancient Egyptian theme, replete with faux-Egyptian décor and a pyramid-shaped restaurant and spa (named, you guessed it, The Pyramids). The Burjaman mall was likewise crammed with one luxury product after another, from $1,000 sunglasses to $20,000 pearl necklaces.

After a morning surveying the luxury malls, I returned to the Mall of the Emirates to experience Ski Dubai, the first indoor ski resort in the Middle East. Ski Dubai boasts almost 250,000 square feet of terrain....however, out on the slopes, the place felt rather...tiny. With a capacity of only 1,500 people and a maximum run of around 400 meters, Ski Dubai is primarily a novelty attraction, aimed at beginners and tourists. When I visited, I was surprised by several things--not the least of which was the relative lack of crowds on the slopes (not to mention the Western pop music blaring in the background). I was also surprised by its affordability--at around $35 dollars for 2 hours of slope time, clothing, and equipment, it falls solidly within the budget of middle-income travelers. The mix of cultures was likewise not what I expected: though I did encounter one gaggle of Arab kids learning to ski, by and large the slopes were filled with European and Asian tourists. While interesting (and fun), it was not the luxury experience that I anticipated coming in.

After my meeting with FX Fowle, I went to visit Diera City Center mall, one of the major middle/upper-middle income malls in Dubai.

It was quite the eye-opener…with more than 370 stores, and parking decks that seemed like they could fit the entire Hyderabad airport (including a play area/arcade that I know for certain was several times larger than the entire departure waiting area in Hyderabad)….this thing was big, more than a little fancy, and also showcased an amazing variety of cultural flows.

The mall had everything—from a Carrefour and a Virgin megastore, to an 11-screen cinema, myriad restaurants and a massive food court (which, aside from the occasional Arabic lettering and prominence of Asian fusion, could fit right in at any American mall), and of course, more clothing, jewelry, and computer game stores than you could shake a stick at. It’s quite the popular hangout—on weekend nights (Thursday and Friday are the official weekend in the UAE), the taxi queues can run up to two or three hours!

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Last week, ChangeWaves welcomed its 50,000th visitor!

Thanks to everyone who reads ChangeWaves. Remember, you can subscribe to our RSS feed to receive ChangeWaves over email or in your favorite RSS reader.

As always, if you have any questions or suggestions for our blog, you can leave them in the comments section of a post or email me directly.

Image: (c) 2008 JupiterImages Corp.

The flight from Hyderabad to Dubai lasted only four hours, which, compared to the five hours I spent waiting in the airport for my flight, wasn’t so bad! However, the shift from Hyderabad’s airport—where they offer to encase your bags in saran wrap, “just in case,”—to Dubai, a possible site for an S)T expedition on the future of luxury and leisure, was like jumping from a borderline World 2/3 country into World 1.

First up on the agenda in Dubai was a meeting with an architect from FX Fowle, a major international architectural firm involved in green building efforts in Dubai. They are contracted to design more than 7 million square feet of green buildings, in addition to a major automotive and metro bridge project across Dubai Creek. We had a very interesting discussion on sustainability and the future of Dubai—no small issue, given that to support its citizens, Dubai consumes more resources per capita than any other country in the world, including the US. The city is a monument to indulgence, luxury, and, thus far, utter disregard for ecological footprint or sustainability: for example, Dubai currently consumes a whopping 250 million gallons of water per day (around 97% of which is desalinated sea water) to sustain a city of less than 1.5 million people.

So you can see why I was curious to talk about sustainability with a green architecture firm recently brought in as part of Sheik Mohammed’s evolving future vision for Dubai. The Sheik rules Dubai as the head of its monarchy, and is the second most powerful man in the United Arab Emirates, after the Sheik of Abu Dhabi.

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From Andy Hines and Peter Bishop's book, Thinking About the Future, comes this advice: Work in multiple time horizons.

Opportunities or challenges in strategic foresight are typically complex. They need to be studied from different perspectives and viewpoints, including their evolution over time. Thinking through the time perspective will bring richness and depth to the activity and could lead to insights that would escape a more traditional “snapshot” approach.

Opportunities or challenges in strategic foresight are typically complex. They need to be studied from different perspectives and viewpoints, including their evolution over time. Thinking through the time perspective will bring richness and depth to the activity and could lead to insights that would escape a more traditional “snapshot” approach.

The timeframe should be negotiated with sponsors as part of the initial chartering in order to properly manage expectations. In most cases, analysts will want to look further into the future than the organization does. Analysts are usually more comfortable with a longer timeframe, and more skilled at identifying the longer-term possibilities and their implications for decision-making today. The organization, however, will often be skeptical of the long view and seek to shorten the timeframe.

Key steps: One way to allay concerns about the long-term timeframe is to talk about the time ecology of the issue: how issues change over time. Effective strategic foresight is not simply a matter of studying the present and/ or the long-term future; it also means studying the issue at points along the way. Different issues are embedded in different systems, which in turn have different relevant timeframes. The computer chip industry, for example, operates on a far more compressed timeframe than the automobile industry.

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